WorldPop, in collaboration with the School of Geographical Sciences at the University of Bristol and the Department of Social Statistics and Demography at the University of Southampton secured funding from Wellcome Trust to deliver a project titled “Constructing high spatial resolution population projections and supporting the provision, access and updates of WorldPop spatial demographic datasets”.

The project represents a transformative research initiative at the intersection of demography, health and climate science. The collaboration will unite world-leading researchers from these institutions with a range of stakeholders, from climate scientists to policymakers and other international players working in this nexus of climate change and health.

Our interdisciplinary team will leverage advanced geospatial technologies and demographic modelling to create high-resolution population maps that will enhance our understanding of human settlements, health vulnerabilities, and environmental interactions.

In an era of rapid global change, understanding population dynamics is more critical than ever and our WorldPop data has become an important dataset for epidemiological research, outbreak response, and healthcare planning. Accurate population estimates help model the spread of diseases, anticipate healthcare resource needs, and implement targeted vaccination or treatment campaigns.

As the World faces ongoing and emerging health threats, the long-term support and maintenance of the data become increasingly critical. Continual updates allow for real-time tracking of population movements, aiding in the rapid response to infectious disease outbreaks and supporting global efforts to strengthen public health systems and inform public health policy.

By mapping population movements, demographics, and potential future scenarios, we will provide crucial insights for targeted interventions in public health, climate adaptation, and social planning. Our research will bridge critical gaps between population data, health infrastructure, and environmental transformation, enabling more responsive and resilient approaches to global challenges.

The proposed work will provide the global community with data and tools to support Wellcome’s goals to build quantitative data on the effects of climate change on health and defining the interventions and policies that can respond to the climate crisis in a way that protects and improves human health.

Project outputs

Construct a global collection of 100m resolution maps of future population scenarios for the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios:

The FuturePop project will generate comprehensive population projection maps that will cover global populations at multiple resolutions, offering insights across different socio-economic scenarios from 2030 to 2100.

Our first deliverable will provide population count maps at 100-meter resolution, capturing population distributions across diverse geographical contexts. By modeling five distinct Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, our outputs will offer nuanced perspectives on potential population futures.

Researchers and policymakers will have access to age and sex-disaggregated datasets, enabling sophisticated analysis of demographic shifts, healthcare needs, and social infrastructure planning. Our phased release strategy ensures comprehensive global coverage, with initial focus on sub-Saharan Africa and Asia before expanding to worldwide datasets.

New versions of WorldPop Global 2015-2030 age and sex-structured population maps at 100m resolution: 

The initial set of 2015-2030 datasets are due for completion in 2025. A comprehensive update will bring in new population data collected beyond 2025, updated and refined geospatial covariates and building maps.

Engagement and outreach: 

WorldPop’s commitment to the co-production of research and outputs will shape our approach to this initiative. We are committed to creating an open, collaborative research ecosystem. Our engagement strategy emphasises early inputs into research agenda, inclusive research practices, knowledge sharing and capacity building.

Researchers, policymakers, and practitioners are invited to engage with us through informal discussions, training sessions, data workshops, and our emerging Community of Practice. We aim to offer comprehensive training materials and communication tools designed to make complex demographic data accessible to diverse audiences.

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• Yankey, O., Utazi, C.E., Nnanatu., C.C., Gadiaga, A.N., Abbot, T., Lazar, A.N., & Tatem., A.  Disaggregating Census Data for Population Mapping Using a Bayesian Additive Regression Tree Model, Research Square. (2024) View Article
• Boo, G., Darin, E., Leasure, D. R., Dooley, C. A., Chamberlain, H. R., Lázár, A. N., … & Tatem, A. J. High-resolution population estimation using household survey data and building footprints. (2022) Nature communications, 13(1), 1-10. View Article
• Tatem, A. J.  WorldPop, open data for spatial demography. (2017) Scientific data, 4(1), 1-4. View Article
• Hierink, F., Boo, G., Macharia, P. M., Ouma, P. O., Timoner, P., Levy, M., … & Ray, N.  Differences between gridded population data impact measures of geographic access to healthcare in sub-Saharan Africa. (2022) Communications medicine, 2(1), 117. View Article